Disagreement persists re presidential winner

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There have been two basic reactions to the irregularities that have been pointed out in the presidential election: (1) diehard Trump supporters are using insignificant voting irregularities to support an absurd conspiracy theory; (2) fatal voting irregularities are being studiously ignored by the “establishment.” To date, the conspiracy theory explanation has been favored by the mainstream media, Big Tech (Google, Facebook, etc.) and many government officials.

Here’s a telling example from a news story in a supposedly conservative publication (actually, WSJ news reports are considerably to the left of its independently managed editorial section). After setbacks, Trump looks beyond legal fight, Rebecca Ballhaus & Catherine Lucey, Wall Street Journal, 11/24/20.

The gist of the story is that the president’s rhetoric about challenging the election results is merely a public pose as he ponders his plans after leaving office on January 20, 2021. And notice the wording of this paragraph (emphasis added).

“We are moving full speed ahead,” Mr. Trump tweeted late Monday. He said he would “never concede” to the fraud he has alleged swayed the outcome of the election. There is no evidence of widespread voter fraud.

No source is cited for the highlighted assertion, which isn’t purported to represent Trump’s opinion. It was presumably included in the paragraph to ensure the WSJ’s story couldn’t be viewed as supporting “misinformation” of a type that liberal “fact-checkers” deem objectionable. In other words, the integrity of the election has been elevated to an article of faith, which must not be questioned without indisputable proof of error or fraud.

The purely coincidental premise is arguably consistent with the oft-cited Occam’s razor principle that the simplest solution to a problem is likely to be correct. The more voting irregularities that surface, however, the harder it gets to dismiss them as mere happenstance. As the saying goes, “where there’s smoke, there’s fire.”

With that thought in mind, let’s review the presently existing controversy and consider how much weight it should be given.

A. Pre-election activity – Citing the coronavirus pandemic that was (and remains) in process, Democrats pushed hard for expanded use of mail-in voting. Although arguably justified by health considerations, it also figured to benefit Democrats in the elections.

Some of the changes were made by state legislatures, as called for by the Constitution (Article II, Section 1): “Each state shall appoint, in such manner as the legislature thereof may direct, a number of electors, equal to the whole number of senators and representatives to which the state may be entitled to in the Congress . . .”. Thus, in Nevada, the state legislature approved – and the governor signed into law – legislation calling for mail-in ballots to be automatically sent to every individual that was on the state voting records.

Various other rule changes were made, in some cases shortly before election day (November 3), as a result of (1) lawsuits brought to seek changes in the voting rules for states and/or local voting districts, or (2) decisions of officials involved with or responsible for administration of said rules. For example: Permit mail-in ballots to be received for several days after November 3 (even without a postmark to show they were mailed on or before Election Day), relax signature verification requirements, relax rules for disqualifying ballots that were not properly completed, etc.

Conservatives warned that such changes would increase the incidence of voter fraud and went to court in an effort to block them, but proponents of liberalizing the rules often prevailed and/or won by default if time ran out. 8 states [including MI, PA & WI] in voting lawsuits with elections less than a week away, Zack Smith & Hans von Spakovsky, dailysignal.com, 10/28/20.

Barring a blowout win for one candidate or the other, it was foreseeable that it would take a week or more to determine the electoral college winner. White House Adviser Jason Miller hints legal battle to stop counting ballots after Election Day, Tyler Van Dyke, Washington Examiner,

B. Election results – Presidential election results began to be reported from the several states on Election Day as their respective physical polling places closed, pretty much as in elections past, but all concerned knew that the incidence of early voting would reach unprecedented levels. The eventual national breakdown would be approximately as follows (compiled from several sources):

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The early results seemed to be trending for President Trump in the “battleground states” that would determine the election. The Fox News “decision desk” called Arizona for Biden, however, and commentators stressed that the counting of mail-in ballots was just beginning.

By the following morning, the momentum had seemingly shifted in Biden’s favor although it was still too early to project the winner. Some observers claimed there was something “fishy” about the apparent shift during the early morning hours, whereas others said the pattern simply reflected the fact that a higher proportion of Democrats than of Republicans had voted by mail (mail-in ballots have to be processed and counted, whereas in-person voting results are tabulated by machines).

The Biden campaign declared victory in the presidential race several days later, based on the vote tally, whereas President Trump said he had won based on the votes legally cast. Down ballot races went better for Republicans than had been generally predicted. Apparent election outcomes,

Based on the latest data, Biden received over 80 million votes versus nearly 74 million votes cast for Trump and several million votes for third party candidates. Electoral college votes now stand at Biden 306, Trump 232. Nbcnews.com,

Republicans are contesting the outcome in six “battleground” states, and could potentially win if at least three of these states (e.g., PA, GA & NV) were flipped.

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Asserting that these states were actually won by Trump is easy; the president has done just that repeatedly. Disproving the current outcomes, however, would be far more difficult. What specific claims are being made by the president et al., and what evidence do they have to prove them?

C. Challenges – At a White House press conference on Nov. 5, the president claimed to have won the election based on the votes that had been legally cast. He did not take any questions. Transcript, 11/5/20.

Several weeks of attacks on the apparent presidential outcome ensued, including a televised (about 90 minutes) press conference of the Trump legal team that outlined a sinister plot to steal the election. Trump campaign lawyers: There is a pattern of planned voter fraud in multiple states, Katie Pavlich, townhall.com,

Reporters at this conference asked numerous questions about where’s your evidence, why do your lawsuits keep getting dismissed, etc. The attorneys (Rudy Giuliani, Sidney Powell & Jenna Ellis) said they had hundreds of affidavits and reams of documentary evidence. For present purposes, however, they were simply presenting an overview (opening argument) for the American people that would be elaborated on in subsequent court proceedings. Members of the press were slammed for
falsely claiming there wasn’t any evidence and pointedly urged to get out and start asking the other side a few questions for a change.

Rudy was sweating profusely, which caused him to repeatedly mop his brow with a handkerchief, and there were visible trails of hair dye running down his face. As for substance, he was mainly talking about garden variety election fraud, e.g., ballot stuffing and GOP monitors not being allowed near where the ballot counting they were entitled to observe was taking place.

Sidney Powell took a different tack, talking about how the Dominion Computer Systems and Smartmatic software, used by many states in the elections, had the capability of tracking the voting results in real time (so plotters could keep track of how many bogus ballots would be required) and/or shifting votes from one candidate to the other. Powell repeatedly referred to the body of evidence being accumulated and asserted that “I never claim things I can’t prove,” or words to that effect. One got the sense, however, that it might be a challenge to prove all the things she was claiming within the time available.

It was subsequently made clear that Powell is acting independently in this matter versus representing the president as such, and that her efforts won’t necessarily be coordinated with those of the Trump legal team. Query whether lawsuits filed by Powell in the name of registered voters in the several states would be taken seriously.

At a White House video teleconference with members of the military on Thanksgiving day, the president took questions from the press re his view of the election results and continuing refusal to concede. Transcript, issued on

The president complained about specific situations in PA, GA, MI, AZ, and WI. He denied that Biden had received 80 million votes, implying that his opponent’s total had been inflated by millions of votes, and specifically referenced the alleged activities of Dominion Computer Systems (albeit without mentioning Sidney Powell, or any of the Trump team attorneys for that matter). As for conceding, maybe he would do so if the Electoral College reached the wrong decision on Dec. 14th, but this was massive fraud – like in a third world country – and hopefully there would be a better outcome.

One encouraging note for Republicans worried about the path forward was that President Trump is planning to organize a Georgia rally (reportedly on Dec. 5th) for the two GOP candidates (Sens. David Perdue & Kelly Loeffler) in the Jan. 5 Senate elections.

With the foregoing background in mind, let’s review the status of pending challenges on a state-by-state basis.

#PENNSYLVANIA – As was the case for Wisconsin, a pre-election issue re permitting the late receipt of mail-in ballots – contrary to Pennsylvania’s voting statutes – made it to the US Supreme Court before Election Day. In the PA case, it was a state court judge – versus federal judge – who had initially authorized a relaxation of the statutory deadline. The currently 8-member Supreme Court split 4-4 on the issue, with the result that the relaxed deadline would apply. There was a statement in the Court’s order – subsequently confirmed by an order issued by Justice Samuel Alito – that any mail-in ballots in the late arrival category would be separately preserved in the event of ensuing litigation after the election.

Since the election there has been a flurry of electoral lawsuits in PA, most (if not all) of which have been decided against Trump or his supporters. Many of the claims had merit, but weren’t readily quantifiable.

For example, Republican monitors were clearly prevented from observing the processing and counting of mail-in ballots in urban areas, e.g., Philadelphia, but what – short of throwing out hundreds of thousands of ballots – was the remedy?

First the PA courts and then the federal courts dismissed all of the claims that had been raised, leaving an appeal to the US Supreme Court as the only judicial card left to play. Giuliani: Calls Pennsylvania case a success, Daniel Chaitin, Washington Examiner,

A federal appeals court in Philadelphia on Friday rejected Trump's latest bid to challenge the 2020 election results. However, Giuliani insisted that because the team got its presentation before GOP lawmakers [on Wednesday, Nov. 25], "in essence, we accomplished the purpose of that case." He added that the Supreme Court "can now take a look at it."

What PA legislators will be inclined to do about the conduct of the 2020 elections in their state remains to be seen, but some of them drafted a resolution on Nov. 27 that displayed some support for the GOP complaints. Pennsylvania legislature files resolution, Jim Hayek, americantruthtoday,

Note the premise that the state legislators couldn’t resolve this situation by themselves, so the objective should not be to declare Trump the winner, but simply to throw the decision into the US House of Representatives for decision (as happened in 1824).

THEREFORE, be it RESOLVED that the Pennsylvania House of Representatives—

1. Recognizes substantial irregularities and improprieties associated with mail-in balloting, pre-canvassing, and canvassing during the November 3, 2020 election;

2. Disapproves of the infringement on the General Assembly’s authority pursuant to the United States Constitution to regulate elections;

3. Disapproves of and disagrees with the Secretary of the Commonwealth’s premature certification of the results of the November 3, 2020 election regarding presidential electors;

4. Declares that the selection of presidential electors and other statewide electoral contest results in this Commonwealth is in dispute;

5. Urges the Secretary of the Commonwealth and the Governor to withdraw or vacate the certification of presidential electors and to delay certification of results in other statewide electoral contests voted on at the 2020 General Election;

6. Urges the United States Congress to declare the selection of presidential electors in this Commonwealth to be in dispute.

Prognosis: It’s hard to imagine Trump being reelected without a reversal of the result in PA, but he shouldn’t count on a big win in the US Supreme Court. First, Chief Justice John Roberts probably isn’t anxious for the Court to assume responsibility for this matter. Second, a win would be impossible without changing the results in at least three states, and none of the other states are teed up for Supreme Court review. Getting the state legislators on board seems like the Trump team’s best shot.

#GEORGIA – Given the closeness of the presidential race in Georgia, a hand recount of ballots was ordered. This turned up some 6K of previously overlooked ballots in several rural voting districts, narrowing Biden’s margin by about 2K votes but leaving him the winner. Georgia certifies: Trump lost, Wall Street Journal,

The Trump team complained that the recount was meaningless because it hadn’t considered a relaxation of the signature verification requirements for mail-in ballots, which had allegedly resulted in a much smaller percentage of such ballots being rejected (0.15%) than would have been expected from past experience (e.g., 3% in 2016). Following this line of argument, the expected rejection out of 1.3M absentee ballots should have been 39K vs. 2K.

The 2020 rejection rate was about the same, however, as had been experienced during the 2018 mid-term elections. Number of absentee ballots rejected for signature issues, ga.gov, accessed

Then came the Dominion Computer System complaint, which was filed in Georgia just before Thanksgiving. Pearson v. Kemp,

We initially focused on the following question. How could the claim that thousands of votes were switched from Trump to Biden be true without creating corresponding discrepancies between the machine vote totals and the statewide hand count of ballots that had just been conducted? See, e.g., Georgia vote recount a test for Dominion Systems reliability, Virginia Allen, dailysignal.com,

Good question, and we’re still unsure of the answer. However, the complaint isn’t just about the Dominion Computer Systems vote-switching capabilities. It also contains a full statement of all voting issues in Georgia, including chapter and verse of the change in signature verification requirements - alleged purposeful alteration or miscounting of ballots - failure to preserve various voting paperwork - pretextual halt of vote counting after the polls closed on Election Day, during which time most of the poll workers and watchers were sent away - at least 96,600 absentee ballots that were requested and counted but never recorded as being returned to county election boards by the voter.

Prognosis: It’s too bad these claims weren’t provided in this form earlier, thereby sparing the Trump legal team from criticism for promising bombshell evidence and failing to deliver it. Sidney Powell now appears to have cured this deficiency, however, and her filing deserves prompt and serious consideration.

#MICHIGAN – Given the current Biden lead of 155K votes, massive voting fraud would have to be established in order to change the result. The most obvious means would be ballot stuffing, such as has been suggested by various people who are familiar with the Michigan elections. Impossible! Michigan, Georgia, PA and VA all show the exact same vote ratio on mail-in votes, rightwingpundit.com,

The record of the MI vote counting in the hours after the polls closed on Election Day seems suspicious: Up until 10:36 PM, at which point 25% of the expected votes have been cast, Trump is ahead by 55% to 43%. For the rest of the night, during various time periods, the vote divisions from batch to batch are unusually consistent. At around 4:00 AM, “a reported approximate load of 120,000+ votes is brought into the Detroit building where votes are being counted. At 6:31 AM, there is a single batch of 147,226 (of which 96% goes for Biden).

At 9:02 AM, two more large Biden batches are counted that give Biden his first lead, with 91% of the votes counted and by 9:15 AM, Biden leads 49.3% to 49.2%! From then on, 28 of 44 vote batches are counted as 49% Trump, 50% Biden.

Then came the Dominion Computer System complaint, which was filed in Michigan just before Thanksgiving. King v. Whitmer,

The complaint includes essentially the same ground about the Dominion Computer Systems and Smartmatic software as the Georgia lawsuit filed by Powell, plus a recap of allegations (backed up by affidavits) about conventional voter fraud in Michigan that includes evidence of a mass delivery of ballots that appeared to be all marked for Biden at around 4:30 AM on Nov. 4, refusal to allow Republican observers for various operations (including reproduction of ballots and ballot counting), alteration of ballots, and disparate treatment of in-person voters depending on their party affiliation.

Unfortunately, this filing is marred by numerous superficial errors, such as sentences without word separation, and a tab feature that makes it very difficult to navigate the text.

As a plan B, the Trump team is considering an attempt to get Michigan legislators involved in the controversy. Initial indications were that there was no appetite for a “hearing,” but Rudy Giuliani might be called to testify. Trump campaign says Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan to hold public hearings on election, states push back, Brooke Singman, foxnews.com,

Prognosis: The Trump team is way behind in Michigan and they don’t have much time to catch up. Plan B is the only chance.

#ARIZONA – Although the voting margin in AZ was very narrow, it has been supported by the quick dismissal of several legal challenges – including claims that votes cast by in-person voters were improperly rejected on Election Day in Maricopa County and a request for a hand recount of paper ballots to check the totals versus the election machine data. Now 0 for 3 in lawsuits, the Republican Party just will not accept that Trump lost Arizona, Laurie Roberts, azcentral.com,

The Trump team is currently attempting to reach out to state legislators (both in AZ and elsewhere) who could potentially derail the certification of the election results. However, it’s unclear that AZ legislators are anxious to get involved in the controversy. Trump campaign says Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan to hold public hearings on election, states push back, Brooke Singman, foxnews.com,

. . . the Trump campaign claimed that next Monday, Nov. 30, the Arizona legislature would also hold a hearing . . . but an Arizona GOP official told Fox News on [Nov. 23] that the Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives "has not authorized any such hearing."

Prognosis: The only hope for the Trump team would seem to be the Dominion Computer System claim of vote switching, which is being pursued by Sidney Powell. See this footnote in the lawsuit filed in Georgia: “The same pattern of election fraud and voter fraud writ large occurred in all the swing states with only minor variations, see expert reports, regarding Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Wisconsin. *** Indeed, we believe that in Arizona at least 35,000 votes were illegally added to Mr. Biden’s vote count.”

#WISCONSIN – Before the election, the 7th Circuit stayed a federal district court decision that extended the deadline for the receipt of mailed ballots from Nov. 3 (Election Day) to Nov. 9 provided they were postmarked on or before Nov. 3. The stay was upheld by the US Supreme Court on Oct. 26. Supreme Court guards against mail-in mayhem in [Wisconsin], Associated Press, westernjournal.com,

Although the statutory deadline was upheld, other rules were apparently bent in an effort to validate as many mail-in ballots as possible. Wisconsin clerks reportedly changed thousands of Wisconsin ballots for Biden, Warner Todd Huston, greatamericanpolitics.com,

According to Wisconsin talk show host Dan O’Donnell, county and municipal clerks and poll workers in Wisconsin illegally changed mail-in ballots all across the state. O’Donnell noted that state law maintains that all mail-in ballots must have a witness’s signature and home address to be valid and to be counted in an election. Wisconsin Statute 6.86 says that if these areas are blank on the mail-in ballot, the vote is illegal and cannot be counted.

A recount of the votes in two urban counties (for which the Trump team paid $3 million) padded Biden’s lead by 87 votes. A lawsuit based on the ballot alterations, etc. is apparently contemplated, but time is running out to file it. Wisconsin county announces results of recount, Associated Press, westernjournal.com,

Prognosis: A legal claim for ballot changes, etc. seems solid, but reports on a talk show aren’t evidence and we don’t know how many affidavits have been gathered, etc. Move it or lose it!

See also the Sidney Powell lawsuit just filed in Georgia. “The same pattern of election fraud and voter fraud writ large occurred in all the swing states with only minor variations, see expert reports, regarding Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Wisconsin.”

#NEVADA – Prior to the 2020 elections, the Nevada legislature enacted a new procedure to send out mail-in ballots automatically to all voters on the voting rolls. This created a source of ballots that hadn’t been requested and weren’t needed by addressees who had either died or moved from the address shown on the voter rolls.

In addition, Clark County (where most NV voters live) reportedly turned down its signature verification setting to 40%, effectively disabling the safeguard that was supposed to prevent superfluous ballots from being fraudulently cast. Report: Eight of nine mismatched signatures accepted in Nevada mail-in ballot experiment, Emily Larsen, Washington Examiner,

An anonymous poll worker provided an affidavit about having witnessed what appeared to be the organized harvesting of bogus ballots in Clark County on election night. Biden and his secret vans brought Biden fake ballots to polling places, rightwaypundit.com,

A statistically improbable number of mail-in ballots were incomplete or supplied unlikely addresses, such as casinos or temporary RV trailer parks. “Historically strange” spike in incomplete Nevada voter files, casinos as “home,” Paul Bedard, Washington Examiner,

The expert, Dorothy Morgan, said that in her initial study of the records of those who voted, there was an “historically strange” jump in voter registrations missing the sex and age of the voter, making confirmation by poll workers impossible. She found that in the last presidential election, there were 68 voter registrations missing the critical data. In 2020, it was 13,372.

Prognosis: Given the current Biden lead in Nevada of 34K, such evidence may not be deemed sufficient to change the result. A state court has belatedly granted a hearing on Dec. 3, however, at which the Trump team will have an opportunity to present its evidence. Trump legal team scored a big win in Nevada. Could it lead to a 2020 bombshell? Matt Vespa, townhall.com,

D. Assessment – President Trump’s challenge to the election results has been disorganized and it was a long shot to begin with, but there is enough evidence of widespread election fraud to merit serious investigation. We can’t condone the efforts of the mainstream media and Big Tech to deflect attention from the situation.


#The prospect of a Biden presidency is hard to contemplate right now. Here are some additional references that merit consideration – SAFE director

•Pennsylvania bombshell: Biden 99.4% v. Trump 0.6%, Paul Kengor, spectator.org,

•Viral memo changing the Trump legal strategy, William Olson & Patrick McSweeney, westernjournal.com,

#Many states are corrupted. PA, MI, IL, & NV have been for decades. I doubt that Trump legal team has enough time to turn things around. – SAFE director

#I think there is no chance that Trump will be re-elected. Hard to imagine Biden as our president. Interesting points being raised, however, about voting irregularities. As an aside, a voting machine fell off a delivery truck in Philly years ago. When it was inspected for possible damage, officials found it had already tabulated all votes and a winner decided. Bet it wasn't the only one of its kind! – SAFE member (DE)

Any thoughts about Barr's recent comments about the election? Time to move forward? - Retired finance manager

We have a lot of respect for the attorney general, and take his comments to mean that he doesn't deem it likely - in his professional opinion - that the claims of voter fraud will result in reversal of the apparent presidential election outcome. Basically the same point was made in the blog entry, although we certainly support further consideration of the extensive evidence of voter fraud that is in the process of being presented. We were also pleased to learn that AG Barr has elevated the John Durham investigation to special counsel status, thereby making it more difficult for an incoming Biden administration to abort this effort.

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